OFF THE RADAR
SEMI-SUBS: A SNEAKY TOOL FOR SMUGGLERS, TERRORISTS
BY ROGER WILLIAMS rwilliams@florida-weekly.com

Especially these days, you have to like an honest military leader, somebody who doesn't sugarcoat a problem, or point to one that doesn't exist.

That would be Rear Admiral Joe Nimmich of the U.S. Coast Guard, commander of the Joint Interagency Task Force-South, headquartered in Key West, whose primary job is to stop drug smuggling all over the Caribbean and the Gulf, as well as in waters that stretch off Central and South America.

Before you nod off, keep this in mind: drug smuggling, drug sales and the drug economy make up a powerful engine for terrorist operations, which means their end consequences are potentially more significant than street dopers and addicts, experts point out.

"The drug smugglers are very innovative and creative, and they've adapted to us as well as we've adapted to them," Nimmich says, bluntly.

Here's how, at least in part: For the last 24 months or so, the often faceless enemy in the drug war has taken to challenging and frustrating U.S. as well as international authorities by using socalled semi-submersible boats built in the jungles of Colombia.

They might be tagged as drug subs, but they're not submarines, explains Nimmich, since they require fresh air for their engines and crew, and they operate mostly close to shore and in shallow water.

On the other hand, they can sail almost invisibly, presenting abovewater profiles of about 12 inches that can't be monitored by any standard radar detection capability.

Constructed of steel, wood and fiberglass, and powered by one or two sixcylinder diesel engines, they stretch anywhere from 45 to about 80 feet in length, they cruise at no more than about six knots, and they displace about six feet of water.

They offer room for a crew of three or four and about 10,000 pounds of cocaine - or whatever else somebody might decide to smuggle, someday, which is part of the reason Nimmich and others are now deeply concerned. And they can be operated without a crew under some circumstances, by remote control, the experts say.

The technology and the method of operation mark a new level of capacity for drug magnates - some of whom exist to finance terrorist operations - although semi-submersibles have been used for a long time, including by the Japanese to put individuals ashore during World War II, says David Lounsbury, associate professor and the Coordinator of the Criminal Forensic Studies program at Florida Gulf Coast University.

U.S. COAST GUARD PHOTO A U.S. Coast Guard team observes boarding team members in the Eastern Pacific Ocean while they inspect a semi-submersible craft loaded with 140 bales of cocaine approximately 90 miles southwest of Costa Rica.

"The closest embarkation point to the U.S. for terrorism now is Europe. We still have the Atlantic separating us, which is an advantage," says Lounsbury. "But as terrorism gets closer to us, as it reaches Central and South America, and Canada, this kind of thing is going to be a bigger problem."

Both in published papers and in public discussions, Lounsbury predicts that the next terrorist attack on the U.S. will come by waterway, which is not a comforting thought, says Nimmich.

PHOTOS COURTESY U.S. SOUTHERN COMMAND Money is no object, either, for the organizations behind the semisub technology and use. This one was captured in the jungles of Columbia. Since a semi-sub costs only $1 to $2 million to build, even back in the jungle, it doesn't create a big hole in the drug economy that's estimated to be about $268 billion per year.

"They build the semi-submersibles in the jungle in Colombia under a triple canopy where it's hard to see them, and they usually leave the west coast of Colombia, then transit to Guatemala and Mexico," he explains. "They offload to small boats offshore, take the cocaine into Guatemala, say, and then move it overland into the States."

Or it goes to Europe, sometimes in shipping containers that are more easily smuggled in there, than here, he adds.

"This is a highly adaptable, asymmetrical enemy that moves drugs throughout the world. In Mexico, they go into containers to Brussels, to Portugal or to Barcelona, Spain. It's a world-wide problem developed over time. They take advantage of any scene the society gives them."

And according to Lounsbury, who spent 14 of his 21 years in military service operating as an Army Intelligence officer in Europe against narcoterrorist organizations (those selling drugs to finance terrorism), that can be done much more easily from embarkation points in the Americas, than from the U.S.

The routing of this underground economy can become complicated, but it is also effective. And unfortunately for the United States, drug trade and supply routes could be used for more than drugs.

The cocaine and heroin industry, alone, offers an example of how just about anything could be moved around to reach an American destination, says Lounsbury.

"Because the U.S. has clamped down so much on cocaine traffic from Colombia into the country, the heroin dealers from the Middle East and Africa have become more prevalent in Europe, where heroin is now a bigger problem than in the U.S.," Lounsbury explains.

"That didn't used to be the case. So these cocaine dealers (in Colombia) get with people in Europe and trade them for heroin, which is easily deliverable to the U.S. It's a complex underground economy."

And the semi-subs are helping to float that economy. They're also a serious threat in their own right.

"Number 1," says Lounsbury, "they could just as easily smuggle a terrorist, or weapons of mass destruction."

Which is exactly how leaders at of the Joint Task Force see it.

"While we've only seen cocaine so far, they could carry anything," says Nimmich, whose tactical command teams try to spot the wakes of the boats when they leave coastlines, and track them from there. It's not a surefire way of apprehending anything, as anyone knows who has ever participated in a massive search for lost pleasure boaters. The chances of success are sometimes not even 50/50.

Nimmich's boss, Admiral Jim Stravidis of the U.S. Southern Command, which includes the Joint Task Force, notes that, "We're using the same kinds of techniques that we used to hunt submarines in the Cold War to try and find these semi-submersibles."

And that isn't enough, says Nimmich.

"The Cold War technology focused on a very specific threat in terms of who we looked at. It was a very specific threat vector.

"My threat vector is much broader. So Cold War technology is not designed for that threat, now. Some of our technology could be applicable here, but it's being used heavily in Iraq and Afghanistan."

The semi-subs themselves are an odd combination of very low tech, and high tech, he adds.

"There is so much high-tech stuff on the market, like good navigational equipment, that these boats can almost run themselves. They can be low-tech, but they can get high-tech equipment, including off-the-shelf sensors they put in to counter-detect us."

Money is no object, either, for the organizations behind the semi-sub technology and use. The level of financing available roughly equals that of great nations, since drugs make up a $268 billion per year industry, with a $35 billion profit, says Nimmich.

Since a semi-sub costs only $1 to $2 million to build, even back in the jungle, it doesn't create a big hole in the drug economy.

"What's most striking," says Colombian Navy Captain Gustavo Angel, who commands an interdiction unit that works closely with the Joint Task Force, "is the logistical capacity of these criminals to take all this material into the heart of the jungle, including heavy equipment like propulsion gear and generators."

For Nimmich, who has served in his current duty station since May of last year, two things appear to have changed in 10 short months, he says.

"The first is that they've moved from centralized loads to distributed loads. When I came in, our major focus was fishing vessels with large shipment of cocaine - 8 to 12 tons - and support vessels far at sea. Now they have a swarm of boats, and it's as difficult for us to prosecute a one-ton shipment as a 10-ton shipment. So they're swarming.

"The second major change has been the preponderance of semi-submersibles. They've gotten good at manufacturing them. And every generation we see shows technological advances from the last one."

Last year, in 2007, the Joint Task Force "interdicted" four semi-subs, and the Colombians, whom Nimmich characterizes as "the most dependable" allies, destroyed five in the jungle.

Two others sank, Nimmich says, perhaps in part because their operators now make it a policy to try to scuttle them or destroy them if the threat of capture looms close.

That has to do with Colombian laws, which say that individuals can't be prosecuted if the drug is not found with the crew.

U.S. laws, though, are about to change. "We've worked hard with the Justice Department, and we're making legislative changes that make even just being on this vessel a criminal act on the high seas," Nimmich says.

That's one small step, but it's a long way from the moon. What's going to happen over time?

"Like everything else, as we detect the direction they shift to, we'll apply our capabilities," Nimmich says. "And we'll become successful. There are technologies we can use to make us more aware, and to interdict more successfully.

"But for me the question is, 'What is the next technology beyond this?' Is it through legitimate containers through the air, or some other alternative? I wish I knew."

Lounsbury is philosophic: "Nothing can be combated with complete success," he says.

semi-subs

>> Dimensions: 45 to 82 feet long

>> Composition: Steel or Wood / Fiberglass

>> Engine: Single or twin six-cylinder diesel engines; 1,500 or more gallons.

>> Speed: 6+ knots (8 mph)

>> Range: Up to 2,000 miles

>> Cargo Capacity: 3-4 adults; 10 + tons of cocaine or terrorist's equipment.

>> Control: Human or Remote Control

>> Cost: Approximately $2 million (USD)